Gambling and Value (Champions League)

This post was inspired by something I put on twitter at the end of last week.
I asked the question “Are Shakhtar Donetsk worth a punt at 100/1 to win the Champions League”.
I had 4 responses. Two responses were positive – “Yes I’d say so”, and “Worth a fiver each way”.
And two responses were not. “Could be 1,000,000-1 it doesn’t matter they’ve got to beat Barca” (from ex-pro Darren Huckerby funnily enough) and “I’d offer you 250/1” from another tweeter.

Now I’ve always been of the opinion that in gambling everything has a right price, and if you get better than that price it’s a good bet, and if worse than the right price, it’s a bad bet. And that is completely irrelevant of the outcome. Win or lose, it doesn’t matter – because in the long run, if you are the right side of the price, you’ll win money.
However, the tough part is knowing what that right price is. That is the reason, for me anyway, that poker is easier, because on a lot of occasions you know exactly the right price.
(I get it incredibly infuriated by TV pundits, who say something like “They’ve got to be a good bet for promotion” without quoting any odds whatsoever.)

So, to go back to Shakhtar Donetsk. I’m of the opinion that they are too long in the betting at 100/1, I’d price them up at around half that price. That doesn’t mean I think they’ll win it – it means that if the Champions League were to be played 50 times from here on in, I think that they would probably win it once.
So if I got the 1,000,000 to 1 offer in real life, I’d bite someones hand off – not expecting to win, but in the long run, thousands of bets like this, and I’d be a rich, rich man.

I’m not trying to give advice on Champions League betting here, but gambling in general. If you can decide what price any “event” will be before even looking at the prices,and then backing accordingly, I think it will do you a favour in the long run. And if it’s a sport/event that you know a fair bit about, you’ll do well. And even if that particular bet loses, keep the faith.

My fund is now up to £215 now, which is very pleasing, after a very generous donation from Rosie donating some of her MTT winnings. In return I have promised to write a blog on there (will et round to it Rosie!! – struggling for inspiration right now, although “Come Dine With Me” keeps popping into my head as an idea..)
My own poker has finally got into profit, and from my own starting fund of $300, I now have $500, but not entirely sure how to stake it yet. If I take some cash out now, I won’t be able to move up stakes – so I think I’ll keep it intact until I safely get into the $10 games – and make a donation when I reach around $700. I’m doing this for a year, so no rush – I want to maximise what I can donate.